Nanotubes Beat Silicon

The Halal text describes the "virtuous cycle of knowledge", where scientific knowledge is continually increased. New IT discoveries lead to more knowledge, which spurs new innovations resulting in more IT discoveries… You get the idea, the cycle just continues to feed itself.

One of the principles that enables this cycle is Moore's Law, which describes the trend of doubling processor chip performance every two years. As transistors and IC chips got smaller and smaller, many scientists have speculated that we are approaching the point where it is no longer financially feasible continue along the Moore's Law performance trend with silicon chips. They are just too expensive to mass produce.

Enter the carbon nanotube:

TechCast touts the IBM research showing carbon nanotubes outperform silicon transistors. The researchers found a transistor fashioned of carbon nanotubes used less power and carried more current than silicon transistors.

The nanotube transistor was "9 nanometers in size, one nanometer smaller than the presumed limit of silicon transistors."

While nanotubes may be the future of circuit chips, it is by no means certain. This technology is still in the R&D phase. It is both difficult and expensive to produce a carbon nanotube transistor. While TechCast may be right or wrong about this particular shift in IC design, I think they are right in that technology will find a way to continue the trend. Whether it be carbon nanotubes or some other new technology, the pace of innovation will not be slowed down by perceived limits of technology. We always seem to find a way.



References
http://www.engadget.com/2012/01/28/ibm-builds-9-nanometer-carbon-nanotube-transistor-puts-silicon/

http://spie.org/x23202.xml

http://www.techcast.org/Commentary.aspx?ID=267

Kevin Kelly: Predicting The Next 5000 Days Of The Web

If you look at the pace of technicalogical developement over the past 2000 years there was very little technological progress until the last few hundred years. In fact, a hundred years ago we were still an agriculture based society that largely relied on horses for transportation and to work our farms. Oh how the times have changed.

Computers are a big component of new technological breakthroughs such as mapping human DNA, creation of tiny nanobots that can repair human tissue to voice activated "smart computers" (Apple's Siri). Frankly the exponential progress of technology is a bit scary at times, and makes me wonder if one day we might accidentally open Pandora's box.

Consider, the U.S. developed the first atomic bomb and ended WWII. What if Germany had discovered it 2 years earlier? What if Iran develops an atomic weapon and gives it to terrorists? What if we create some other new technology that mankind is not ready to safely use or handle?

According to one of Kevin Kelly's predictions, in the next 5000 days, humans will become a part of the of the internet or global mind.  We won't simply interact with it by entering or retrieving data, but will be an extension of the global mind, and an integral component of it.

"The next 5,000 days of the internet will bring a symbiotic relationship between man and the digital world, neither existing fully without the other.  We will increasingly be dependent on the internet and it will increasingly be dependent on us."

Kelly says the tradeoff for this kind of connectivity is that people will have to become "transparent". I think he is absolutely right about that, which is why I don't think we are quite ready for it (at least Americans).

Forces that affect success:
Social: Americans value their privacy. Personally I think there is already too much information available about me - I don't care to be more "transparent" than I already am. Big Brother could be lurking just around the corner.
Legal: At some point there is going to be a conflict between privacy laws and technology. Hopefully privacy will win.

Web 2.0 Tools for Socio-Technical Innovation: Microsoft Office Live

This is a new Microsoft web product that is designed to share files and documents with multiple users. Here are some of the benefits;

-it is basically an online tool to allow users to easily collaborate
-it has privacy controls for each document
-it provides notifications that another user is editing a document
-users can work on a shared document at the same time
-there is a plug-in to allow users to save documents to the site in real time without having to navigate to the website

Virtual Retinal Display Animoto Video

If that doesn't work for you, try this link;

Click Here

Virtual Retinal Display (VRD)

A Virtual Retinal Display (VRD) is a technology used to display information directly on the retina of the eye. Since the VRD is projecting the image it uses a raster to create the image pixel by pixel like a CRT monitor. This kind of image give the user the illusion of a normal sized screen hovering in the air in front of them.

If you've seen the movie Minority Report with the 3d hologram monitor system, the VRD can essentially create the same effect. Instead of a publicly displayed 3d image, the VRD creates the effect only for the user.

The benefit of the VRD is that the image is private. I love my iPhone. I like to read email, books, newspapers and the like, but my iPhone’s screen is just too dang small for most purposes. Yes I could tote an iPad around and accomplish the same thing in more comfort, but then I have to carry around something much larger. A VRD would allow smaller devices to be much more useful, especially as they continue to grow in processing power.

I think the Delphi method could be very useful in evaluating/analyzing the VRD. It allows experts to gradually build consensus on the steps needed to bring the VRD to the mainstream and mass market it (as it is still really expensive).

Two forces that will support its further development are;

1.  Medical – The VRD can be very helpful to doctors and surgeons. For example, it can be used to highlight tumors and cancerous growths in one color (to aid in their removal), and illuminate delicate areas to preserve in a different color.

2.  Social – The uses in social media are unlimited. I’ve already mentioned their use in smartphones, but they can also be used in virtual reality (Second Life) and games.

Two forces that impede development are;

1.  Cost - The technology of developing the VRD is still very expensive, especially the creation of low cost blue and green light sources.

2.  Safety - Who wouldn’t be concerned about shooting a laser in their eye? Yeah, that is scary.

References:

http://www.hitl.washington.edu/publications/p-95-1/

http://www.hitl.washington.edu/projects/vrd/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_retinal_display

New Agora Paper: Gaining consensus in projects

The problem with any group of stakeholders in a project is building consensus on the correct course of action at any given decision point. But getting that decision “right” is even more vital than gaining group agreement. To that end, one SDP process called 2-phased WebScope methodology could be an invaluable tool in analyzing innovative ideas or technologies. Consider the Virtual Retinal Display (VRD) technology that already exists but is still very expensive and has not moved to the mass market. The WebScope methodology could be used to facilitate discussions among experts on whether the VRD is ready for the general market or what other improvements might be needed to get there. A triggering question to initiate discussion could be as simple as, “What does the VRD need to move it to mass production?”

Other “Forces” to beware of during project development?

Social and Political: Never underestimate the power of conformity. Failure to use the SDP process or similar methodology can produce undesired results. At one end of the spectrum you could have a powerful personality in the group who dominates discussions and gets the group to adopt his/her point of view.  At the other end of the spectrum you could have a group members that try so hard to minimize conflict you wind up with a product no one really wants or supports.

Check out my blog here:

http://conservativevaluesrule.blogspot.com/

Here is the New Agora paper

http://www.ctudoctoral.net/mod/resource/view.php?id=29430

TED Talks

Fetal Learning

We have known for many years that the first few years of childhood greatly influence how and what we learn later in life. Check out this TED video:

http://www.ted.com/talks/annie_murphy_paul_what_we_learn_before_we_re_born.html

Everyone has heard about playing classical music to a pregnant woman’s belly to instill an early love of music, but now there is actual research that shows the life of a fetus in the womb is already playing a role.  Turns out that a much more primeval kind of learning is going on.

The kind of nutrition the expectant mother consumes has a direct effect on the development of the child than anyone would have thought. Children born at the end of WWII in Holland shared their mother’s hunger as the population experienced near starvation prior to liberation by the allied forces. Those children would later exhibit much higher incidence of obesity, diabetes and similar disorders. The conjecture is that their bodies were conditioned in the womb to prepare for a world of scarcity and privation, but were born into a life of plenty.

Other experiments showed the dietary preferences of the mother were transferred to the fetus as well. One study showed that women with excessive weight gain during pregnancy had children with a much higher risk of being overweight by the age of 3. All  very interesting stuff- sheds a whole new light on the hot-button issue of when life begins.